2014 Ontario general election
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107 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 54 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 51.3% (![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2014 Ontario general election was held on June 12, 2014, to elect the members of the 41st Parliament of Ontario. The Liberal Party won a majority of seats in the legislature, allowing its leader, Kathleen Wynne, to continue as premier, moving from a minority to majority government. This was the Liberals' fourth consecutive win since 2003 and an improvement from their performance in the 2011 election.[2] The Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak were returned to the official opposition; following the election loss, Hudak announced his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader.[3] The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath remained in third place, albeit with an improved share of the popular vote.
The election was called on May 2, 2014, by Lieutenant Governor David Onley,[4] upon the recommendation of Wynne following the announcement that the NDP, whose support was critical to the survival of the Liberals' minority government in the Legislative Assembly, would vote against the Liberals' proposed budget.[5]
With the election, Wynne became the first woman and the first openly gay person to lead a party to a majority victory in an Ontario general election.[6][7]
Timeline (2011–2014)
Seat changes
Party | 2011 | Gain/(loss) due to | 2014 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Resignation | Byelection hold | Byelection gain | ||||
Liberal | 53 | (8) | 3 | 48 | ||
Progressive Conservative | 37 | (2) | 1 | 1 | 37 | |
New Democratic | 17 | 4 | 21 | |||
Vacant | – | 1 | 1 | |||
Total | 107 | (9) | 4 | 5 | 107 |
Seat | Before | Change | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party | |
Kitchener—Waterloo | April 27, 2012 | Elizabeth Witmer | █ PC | Resignation[a 1] | September 6, 2012 | Catherine Fife | █ New Democratic |
Vaughan | August 1, 2012 | Greg Sorbara | █ Liberal | Resignation[a 2] | September 6, 2012 | Steven Del Duca | █ Liberal |
London West | February 14, 2013[8] | Chris Bentley | █ Liberal | Resignation[a 3] | August 1, 2013[9] | Peggy Sattler | █ New Democratic |
Windsor—Tecumseh | February 14, 2013 | Dwight Duncan | █ Liberal | Resignation[a 4] | August 1, 2013 | Percy Hatfield | █ New Democratic |
Ottawa South | June 12, 2013[10] | Dalton McGuinty | █ Liberal | Resignation | August 1, 2013 | John Fraser | █ Liberal |
Scarborough—Guildwood | June 27, 2013[11] | Margarett Best | █ Liberal | Resignation | August 1, 2013 | Mitzie Hunter | █ Liberal |
Etobicoke—Lakeshore | July 2, 2013[12] | Laurel Broten | █ Liberal | Resignation[a 5] | August 1, 2013 | Doug Holyday | █ PC |
Niagara Falls | September 24, 2013[13] | Kim Craitor | █ Liberal | Resignation | February 13, 2014[14] | Wayne Gates | █ New Democratic |
Thornhill | December 31, 2013[15] | Peter Shurman | █ PC | Resignation | February 13, 2014 | Gila Martow | █ PC |
Brampton—Springdale | March 25, 2014[16] | Linda Jeffrey | █ Liberal | Resignation[a 6] | █ Vacant |
- ^ after being appointed chair of the Workplace Safety & Insurance Board
- ^ former Chair of the Management Board of Cabinet and Minister of Finance
- ^ also from the positions of Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Minister of Energy
- ^ also from the positions of Minister of Finance and Minister of Government Services
- ^ also from her position as Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs
- ^ resigning from the positions of Chair of Cabinet and Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, to run for Mayor of Brampton
Other developments
Date | Event |
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October 6, 2011 | Election held for members of the Ontario Legislature in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario. |
November 22, 2011 | The 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario opens with a Speech from the throne.[17] |
March 28, 2012 | Dwight Duncan presents the Government's first minority budget, requiring support from at least one of the other two parties to ensure passage and avoid an early election. |
April 10, 2012 | NDP Leader Andrea Horwath makes several demands to be met in exchange for her party to support the Liberal budget, which support is necessary for the approval of the budget following Tim Hudak's outright rejection of it.[18] |
June 15, 2012 | Premier Dalton McGuinty states he will drop the writ if his budget is not passed.[19] |
June 20, 2012 | The budget bill is passed, after the NDP agrees to abstain, avoiding a summer election.[20] |
October 15, 2012 | Dalton McGuinty announces his resignation as Premier of Ontario and as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[21] |
January 26, 2013 | Kathleen Wynne is elected Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[22] |
February 11, 2013 | Wynne is sworn in as Premier, and a new cabinet is sworn in.[23] |
February 20, 2013 | Wynne resumes the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario with a Speech of the Throne. |
May 1, 2014 | Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces that his caucus will be voting against the Liberals' budget, proposed earlier that day. |
May 2, 2014 | NDP leader Andrea Horwath announces that the NDP will be voting against the Liberals' proposed budget, triggering a spring election.[5] Following this, Premier Wynne formally asks Lieutenant Governor David Onley to dissolve the legislature and call an election for June 12, 2014.[24] |
June 12, 2014 | The Liberal Party wins a majority, claiming 58 ridings in the Ontario election.[25] Tim Hudak announced that he is stepping down from his leadership of the PC party.[26] |
June 14, 2014 | A judicial recount has been requested in the riding of Thornhill.[27] |
June 24, 2014 | A judge confirms results in Thornhill are in favour of the Progressive Conservatives.[28] |
Incumbents not running for reelection
Electoral district | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee | New MPP | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durham | John O'Toole[29] | Mike Patrick | Granville Anderson | ||
Etobicoke Centre | Donna Cansfield[30] | Yvan Baker | Yvan Baker | ||
Kingston and the Islands | John Gerretsen[31] | Sophie Kiwala | Sophie Kiwala | ||
Kitchener Centre | John Milloy[32] | Daiene Vernile | Daiene Vernile | ||
Newmarket—Aurora | Frank Klees[33][34] | Jane Twinney | Chris Ballard | ||
Ottawa—Orléans | Phil McNeely[35] | Marie-France Lalonde | Marie-France Lalonde | ||
Sudbury | Rick Bartolucci[36] | Andrew Olivier | Joe Cimino |
Results
↓ | |||||||||
58 | 28 | 21 | |||||||
Liberal | PC | NDP |
Party | Party leader | Candidates | Seats | Popular vote[37][38] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | Dissol. | 2014 | Change | # | % | Change | ||||
Liberal | Kathleen Wynne | 107 | 53 | 48 | 58 | 5![]() | 1,863,974 | 38.67% | 1.02%![]() | |
Progressive Conservative | Tim Hudak | 107 | 37 | 37 | 28 | 9![]() | 1,505,436 | 31.23% | 4.22%![]() | |
New Democratic | Andrea Horwath | 107 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 4![]() | 1,144,822 | 23.75% | 1.01%![]() | |
Green | Mike Schreiner | 107 | – | – | – | – | 235,911 | 4.89% | 1.97%![]() | |
Libertarian | Allen Small | 74 | – | – | – | – | 37,696 | 0.78% | 0.33%![]() | |
Freedom | Paul McKeever | 42 | – | – | – | – | 12,381 | 0.26% | 0.05%![]() | |
Family Coalition | Eric Ames (interim) | 6 | – | – | – | – | 4,288 | 0.09% | 0.13%![]() | |
None of the Above | Greg Vezina | 8 | – | – | – | – | 4,247 | 0.09% | – | |
Independent | 14 | – | – | – | – | 3,854 | 0.08% | – | ||
Communist | Elizabeth Rowley | 11 | – | – | – | – | 2,290 | 0.05% | 0.02%![]() | |
Canadians' Choice | Bahman Yazdanfar | 4 | – | – | – | – | 1,293 | 0.03% | 0.03%![]() | |
Vegan Environmental | Paul Figueiras | 5 | – | – | – | – | 907 | 0.02% | 0.01%![]() | |
People's Political Party | Kevin Clarke | 5 | – | – | – | – | 894 | 0.02% | 0.01%![]() | |
Northern Ontario Heritage | Edward Deibel | 3 | – | – | – | – | 892 | 0.02% | – | |
Special Needs | Danish Ahmed | 3 | – | – | – | – | 709 | 0.01% | 0.01%![]() | |
Confederation of Regions | vacant | 2 | – | – | – | – | 551 | 0.01% | – | |
Trillium | Bob Yaciuk | 2 | – | – | – | – | 397 | 0.01% | – | |
Equal Parenting | Dennis Valenta | 2 | – | – | – | – | 366 | 0.01% | – | |
Socialist | Michael Laxer | 2 | – | – | – | – | 361 | 0.01% | – | |
Moderate | Yuri Duboisky | 2 | – | – | – | – | 335 | 0.01% | – | |
Pauper | John Turmel | 3 | – | – | – | – | 194 | – | – | |
Declined Vote[39] | 31,399 | 0.64% | +0.59% | |||||||
Vacant | 1 | |||||||||
Total | 616 | 107 | 107 | 107 | 4,820,547 |
Party | Votes | Seats | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | 1,863,974 | 38.67% | ![]() | 58 / 107 (54%) | |
Progressive Conservative | 1,505,436 | 31.23% | ![]() | 28 / 107 (26%) | |
New Democratic | 1,144,822 | 23.75% | ![]() | 21 / 107 (20%) | |
Green | 235,911 | 4.89% | ![]() | 0 / 107 (0%) | |
Libertarian | 37,696 | 0.78% | ![]() | 0 / 107 (0%) |
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Synopsis of results
Riding | 2011 | Winning party | Turnout [a 2] | Votes[a 3] | ||||||||||||||
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Party | Votes | Share | Margin # | Margin % | Lib | PC | NDP | Green | Ind | Other | Total | |||||||
Ajax—Pickering | Lib | Lib | 26,257 | 51.06% | 11,258 | 21.89% | 50.18% | 26,257 | 14,999 | 8,274 | 1,589 | – | 301 | 51,420 | ||||
Algoma—Manitoulin | NDP | NDP | 14,171 | 53.41% | 7,667 | 28.90% | 49.38% | 6,504 | 4,589 | 14,171 | 828 | – | 441 | 26,533 | ||||
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale | Lib | Lib | 24,042 | 44.56% | 5,790 | 10.73% | 59.02% | 24,042 | 18,252 | 8,415 | 2,639 | – | 611 | 53,959 | ||||
Barrie | PC | Lib | 19,916 | 40.69% | 2,249 | 4.60% | 49.18% | 19,916 | 17,667 | 7,975 | 3,018 | – | 366 | 48,942 | ||||
Beaches—East York | NDP | Lib | 17,218 | 40.09% | 481 | 1.12% | 56.14% | 17,218 | 5,982 | 16,737 | 2,329 | – | 682 | 42,948 | ||||
Bramalea—Gore—Malton | NDP | NDP | 23,519 | 44.32% | 5,646 | 10.64% | 45.03% | 17,873 | 9,403 | 23,519 | 2,277 | – | – | 53,072 | ||||
Brampton—Springdale | Lib | Lib | 16,927 | 40.06% | 3,414 | 8.08% | 45.34% | 16,927 | 10,117 | 13,513 | 1,311 | – | 382 | 42,250 | ||||
Brampton West | Lib | Lib | 24,832 | 45.23% | 11,469 | 20.89% | 42.50% | 24,832 | 13,363 | 12,985 | 1,504 | – | 2,418 | 54,902 | ||||
Brant | Lib | Lib | 19,396 | 37.63% | 3,949 | 7.66% | 52.51% | 19,396 | 15,447 | 13,992 | 2,095 | – | 614 | 51,544 | ||||
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PC | PC | 20,359 | 47.55% | 8,773 | 20.49% | 53.93% | 11,586 | 20,359 | 6,787 | 3,696 | – | 388 | 42,816 | ||||
Burlington | PC | Lib | 23,573 | 43.41% | 3,487 | 6.42% | 57.73% | 23,573 | 20,086 | 7,792 | 2,250 | – | 608 | 54,309 | ||||
Cambridge | PC | Lib | 18,763 | 38.93% | 3,069 | 6.37% | 48.95% | 18,763 | 15,694 | 10,413 | 2,726 | – | 605 | 48,201 | ||||
Carleton—Mississippi Mills | PC | PC | 30,590 | 47.49% | 10,118 | 15.71% | 56.08% | 20,472 | 30,590 | 8,744 | 4,614 | – | – | 64,420 | ||||
Chatham-Kent—Essex | PC | PC | 14,183 | 37.83% | 2,519 | 6.72% | 51.33% | 9,158 | 14,183 | 11,664 | 1,971 | – | 514 | 37,490 | ||||
Davenport | NDP | Lib | 16,272 | 45.61% | 1,950 | 5.47% | 49.56% | 16,272 | 2,665 | 14,322 | 1,784 | – | 631 | 35,674 | ||||
Don Valley East | Lib | Lib | 19,248 | 55.71% | 9,991 | 28.92% | 47.85% | 19,248 | 9,257 | 4,500 | 1,256 | – | 287 | 34,548 | ||||
Don Valley West | Lib | Lib | 26,215 | 57.01% | 12,133 | 26.39% | 53.90% | 26,215 | 14,082 | 3,569 | 1,286 | 138 | 690 | 45,980 | ||||
Dufferin—Caledon | PC | PC | 18,017 | 39.86% | 4,156 | 9.19% | 51.48% | 13,861 | 18,017 | 5,269 | 7,518 | – | 538 | 45,203 | ||||
Durham | PC | Lib | 19,816 | 36.45% | 1,176 | 2.16% | 55.71% | 19,816 | 18,640 | 13,094 | 2,382 | – | 434 | 54,366 | ||||
Eglinton—Lawrence | Lib | Lib | 22,855 | 54.80% | 8.776 | 21.04% | 53.99% | 22,855 | 14,079 | 3,060 | 1,305 | 143 | 264 | 41,706 | ||||
Elgin—Middlesex—London | PC | PC | 20,946 | 46.36% | 8,912 | 19.72% | 53.98% | 9,183 | 20,946 | 12,034 | 2,236 | – | 784 | 45,183 | ||||
Essex | NDP | NDP | 28,118 | 60.34% | 17,949 | 38.52% | 50.20% | 6,628 | 10,169 | 28,118 | 1,685 | – | – | 46,600 | ||||
Etobicoke Centre | Lib | Lib | 23,848 | 50.28% | 8,328 | 17.56% | 56.47% | 23,848 | 15,520 | 5,758 | 1,254 | – | 1,052 | 47,432 | ||||
Etobicoke—Lakeshore | Lib | Lib | 24,311 | 47.49% | 6,724 | 13.13% | 53.73% | 24,311 | 17,587 | 6,362 | 2,064 | – | 869 | 51,193 | ||||
Etobicoke North | Lib | Lib | 12,168 | 44.90% | 5,065 | 18.69% | 42.71% | 12,168 | 6,163 | 7,103 | 677 | – | 987 | 27,098 | ||||
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | Lib | Lib | 23,565 | 49.74% | 8,136 | 17.17% | 53.36% | 23,565 | 15,429 | 5,902 | 1,528 | 296 | 655 | 47,375 | ||||
Guelph | Lib | Lib | 22,014 | 41.52% | 10,966 | 20.68% | 55.47% | 22,014 | 11,048 | 9,385 | 10,230 | – | 348 | 53,025 | ||||
Haldimand—Norfolk | PC | PC | 22,066 | 52.22% | 12,280 | 29.06% | 53.97% | 8,331 | 22,066 | 9,786 | 2,071 | – | – | 42,254 | ||||
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PC | PC | 21,641 | 40.96% | 3,129 | 5.92% | 55.98% | 18,512 | 21,641 | 10,431 | 2,255 | – | – | 52,839 | ||||
Halton | PC | Lib | 33,724 | 44.79% | 5,787 | 7.69% | 50.90% | 33,724 | 27,937 | 9,758 | 2,618 | – | 1,262 | 75,299 | ||||
Hamilton Centre | NDP | NDP | 18,697 | 52.01% | 10,247 | 28.50% | 44.76% | 8,450 | 5,173 | 18,697 | 3,067 | – | 563 | 35,950 | ||||
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP | NDP | 19,958 | 46.81% | 7,525 | 17.65% | 48.84% | 12,433 | 7,574 | 19,958 | 1,742 | – | 930 | 42,637 | ||||
Hamilton Mountain | NDP | NDP | 23,006 | 46.90% | 8,498 | 17.32% | 52.85% | 14,508 | 8,795 | 23,006 | 2,047 | – | 699 | 49,055 | ||||
Huron—Bruce | PC | PC | 18,512 | 39.01% | 3,865 | 8.14% | 59.96% | 14,647 | 18,512 | 10,843 | 1,651 | – | 1,804 | 47,457 | ||||
Kenora—Rainy River | NDP | NDP | 12,889 | 55.66% | 6,984 | 30.16% | 46.72% | 3,652 | 5,905 | 12,889 | 711 | – | – | 23,157 | ||||
Kingston and the Islands | Lib | Lib | 20,838 | 41.59% | 6,027 | 12.03% | 52.14% | 20,838 | 10,652 | 14,811 | 3,566 | – | 242 | 50,109 | ||||
Kitchener Centre | Lib | Lib | 18,472 | 43.14% | 6,922 | 16.17% | 52.28% | 18,472 | 11,550 | 9,765 | 2,472 | – | 557 | 42,816 | ||||
Kitchener—Conestoga | PC | PC | 17,083 | 36.36% | 1,419 | 3.02% | 50.33% | 15,664 | 17,083 | 9,958 | 3,277 | – | 1,001 | 46,983 | ||||
Kitchener—Waterloo | PC | NDP | 20,536 | 37.43% | 4,002 | 7.29% | 54.95% | 16,534 | 14,450 | 20,536 | 2,859 | – | 481 | 54,860 | ||||
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PC | PC | 20,710 | 45.17% | 8,550 | 18.65% | 56.93% | 9,298 | 20,710 | 12,160 | 2,104 | – | 1,575 | 45,847 | ||||
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington | PC | PC | 21,966 | 43.52% | 6,929 | 13.73% | 53.95% | 15,037 | 21,966 | 10,184 | 3,283 | – | – | 50,470 | ||||
Leeds—Grenville | PC | PC | 23,253 | 56.07% | 14,754 | 35.58% | 52.86% | 8,499 | 23,253 | 7,219 | 2,030 | – | 471 | 41,472 | ||||
London—Fanshawe | NDP | NDP | 17,903 | 50.42% | 9,707 | 27.34% | 46.42% | 7,066 | 8,196 | 17,903 | 1,378 | 112 | 853 | 35,508 | ||||
London North Centre | Lib | Lib | 16,379 | 35.98% | 2,526 | 5.55% | 50.21% | 16,379 | 12,016 | 13,853 | 2,445 | – | 824 | 45,517 | ||||
London West | Lib | NDP | 22,243 | 40.36% | 5,948 | 10.79% | 56.03% | 13,070 | 16,295 | 22,243 | 2,310 | – | 1,188 | 55,106 | ||||
Markham—Unionville | Lib | Lib | 21,517 | 51.33% | 7,276 | 17.36% | 44.54% | 21,517 | 14,241 | 4,205 | 1,509 | – | 444 | 41,916 | ||||
Mississauga—Brampton South | Lib | Lib | 19,923 | 48.21% | 8,672 | 20.99% | 41.48% | 19,923 | 11,251 | 6,906 | 1,302 | 351 | 1,590 | 41,323 | ||||
Mississauga East—Cooksville | Lib | Lib | 20,934 | 52.33% | 10,455 | 26.14% | 43.89% | 20,934 | 10,479 | 6,158 | 1,408 | – | 1,022 | 40,001 | ||||
Mississauga—Erindale | Lib | Lib | 25,356 | 48.98% | 9,882 | 19.09% | 46.90% | 25,356 | 15,474 | 7,730 | 1,216 | – | 1,988 | 51,764 | ||||
Mississauga South | Lib | Lib | 22,192 | 50.76% | 7,678 | 17.56% | 53.55% | 22,192 | 14,514 | 4,649 | 1,418 | – | 946 | 43,719 | ||||
Mississauga—Streetsville | Lib | Lib | 22,587 | 52.57% | 10,527 | 24.50% | 46.76% | 22,587 | 12,060 | 5,885 | 1,566 | – | 866 | 42,964 | ||||
Nepean—Carleton | PC | PC | 30,901 | 46.77% | 8,927 | 13.51% | 55.39% | 21,974 | 30,901 | 8,628 | 3,630 | – | 940 | 66,073 | ||||
Newmarket—Aurora | PC | Lib | 22,997 | 43.94% | 3,412 | 6.52% | 53.40% | 22,997 | 19,585 | 6,023 | 2,144 | – | 1,584 | 52,333 | ||||
Niagara Falls | Lib | NDP | 24,131 | 47.39% | 7,429 | 14.59% | 51.21% | 7,329 | 16,702 | 24,131 | 1,724 | – | 1,037 | 50,923 | ||||
Niagara West—Glanbrook | PC | PC | 23,378 | 41.82% | 7,535 | 13.48% | 58.59% | 15,843 | 23,378 | 12,423 | 3,004 | – | 1,254 | 55,902 | ||||
Nickel Belt | NDP | NDP | 20,104 | 62.62% | 13,073 | 40.72% | 50.00% | 7,031 | 3,827 | 20,104 | 1,145 | – | – | 32,107 | ||||
Nipissing | PC | PC | 13,085 | 41.81% | 4,703 | 15.03% | 52.49% | 8,382 | 13,085 | 8,057 | 1,188 | 208 | 377 | 31,297 | ||||
Northumberland—Quinte West | PC | Lib | 23,419 | 42.97% | 3,836 | 7.04% | 55.81% | 23,419 | 19,583 | 9,211 | 2,283 | – | – | 54,496 | ||||
Oak Ridges—Markham | Lib | Lib | 36,782 | 45.55% | 6,526 | 8.08% | 46.21% | 36,782 | 30,256 | 9,355 | 2,791 | – | 1,571 | 80,755 | ||||
Oakville | Lib | Lib | 24,717 | 49.40% | 5,796 | 11.58% | 56.13% | 24,717 | 18,921 | 3,994 | 1,887 | – | 518 | 50,037 | ||||
Oshawa | PC | NDP | 22,232 | 46.70% | 7,692 | 16.16% | 50.19% | 9,051 | 14,540 | 22,232 | 1,785 | – | – | 47,608 | ||||
Ottawa Centre | Lib | Lib | 27,689 | 52.02% | 16,795 | 31.55% | 56.85% | 27,689 | 9,678 | 10,894 | 4,163 | – | 808 | 53,232 | ||||
Ottawa—Orléans | Lib | Lib | 29,911 | 53.50% | 11,386 | 20.37% | 59.33% | 29,911 | 18,525 | 5,022 | 2,036 | – | 411 | 55,905 | ||||
Ottawa South | Lib | Lib | 23,708 | 49.96% | 8,473 | 17.86% | 53.71% | 23,708 | 15,235 | 5,817 | 2,034 | – | 656 | 47,450 | ||||
Ottawa—Vanier | Lib | Lib | 21,810 | 55.55% | 13,060 | 33.26% | 48.86% | 21,810 | 8,750 | 5,228 | 3,144 | – | 329 | 39,261 | ||||
Ottawa West—Nepean | Lib | Lib | 21,035 | 44.84% | 5,140 | 10.96% | 55.95% | 21,035 | 15,895 | 6,760 | 2,899 | – | 318 | 46,907 | ||||
Oxford | PC | PC | 18,958 | 46.24% | 8,385 | 20.45% | 51.92% | 8,736 | 18,958 | 10,573 | 1,985 | – | 749 | 41,001 | ||||
Parkdale—High Park | NDP | NDP | 18,385 | 40.77% | 544 | 1.21% | 56.88% | 17,841 | 5,787 | 18,385 | 2,479 | – | 601 | 45,093 | ||||
Parry Sound—Muskoka | PC | PC | 15,761 | 40.73% | 5,603 | 14.48% | 52.11% | 10,158 | 15,761 | 4,999 | 7,484 | – | 296 | 38,698 | ||||
Perth—Wellington | PC | PC | 15,992 | 38.96% | 2,407 | 5.86% | 55.66% | 13,585 | 15,992 | 7,764 | 2,005 | 343 | 1,359 | 41,048 | ||||
Peterborough | Lib | Lib | 24,709 | 46.33% | 8,802 | 16.50% | 57.30% | 24,709 | 15,907 | 9,728 | 2,287 | 395 | 305 | 53,331 | ||||
Pickering—Scarborough East | Lib | Lib | 23,206 | 51.96% | 10,568 | 23.66% | 54.77% | 23,206 | 12,638 | 6,600 | 1,564 | – | 654 | 44,662 | ||||
Prince Edward—Hastings | PC | PC | 19,281 | 41.72% | 4,176 | 9.04% | 51.61% | 15,105 | 19,281 | 8,829 | 2,448 | – | 555 | 46,218 | ||||
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PC | PC | 25,241 | 61.07% | 17,344 | 41.96% | 54.32% | 7,897 | 25,241 | 5,978 | 1,337 | 392 | 489 | 41,334 | ||||
Richmond Hill | Lib | Lib | 20,455 | 47.78% | 4,813 | 11.24% | 45.69% | 20,455 | 15,642 | 4,697 | 1,344 | – | 670 | 42,808 | ||||
St. Catharines | Lib | Lib | 19,070 | 41.00% | 5,256 | 11.30% | 54.80% | 19,070 | 13,814 | 11,350 | 1,792 | – | 488 | 46,514 | ||||
St. Paul's | Lib | Lib | 30,027 | 59.74% | 17,990 | 35.79% | 57.11% | 30,027 | 12,037 | 5,056 | 2,569 | – | 572 | 50,261 | ||||
Sarnia—Lambton | PC | PC | 18,722 | 41.01% | 2,395 | 5.25% | 57.35% | 8,152 | 18,722 | 16,327 | 2,109 | – | 340 | 45,650 | ||||
Sault Ste. Marie | Lib | Lib | 17,490 | 58.53% | 9,880 | 33.06% | 50.77% | 17,490 | 3,704 | 7,610 | 965 | – | 115 | 29,884 | ||||
Scarborough—Agincourt | Lib | Lib | 17,332 | 49.84% | 5,291 | 15.22% | 46.04% | 17,332 | 12,041 | 4,105 | 907 | – | 387 | 34,772 | ||||
Scarborough Centre | Lib | Lib | 19,390 | 55.05% | 11,791 | 33.48% | 48.09% | 19,390 | 7,599 | 7,145 | 1,086 | – | – | 35,220 | ||||
Scarborough—Guildwood | Lib | Lib | 17,318 | 49.89% | 7,597 | 21.89% | 49.24% | 17,318 | 9,721 | 5,894 | 1,034 | – | 744 | 34,711 | ||||
Scarborough—Rouge River | Lib | Lib | 16,095 | 38.71% | 3,076 | 7.40% | 47.48% | 16,095 | 11,500 | 13,019 | 571 | – | 398 | 41,583 | ||||
Scarborough Southwest | Lib | Lib | 18,420 | 50.23% | 9,746 | 26.58% | 49.91% | 18,420 | 7,573 | 8,674 | 1,493 | 185 | 328 | 36,673 | ||||
Simcoe—Grey | PC | PC | 25,988 | 47.12% | 8,789 | 15.94% | 52.00% | 17,199 | 25,988 | 7,793 | 4,172 | – | – | 55,152 | ||||
Simcoe North | PC | PC | 22,179 | 43.96% | 5,766 | 11.43% | 53.33% | 16,413 | 22,179 | 7,846 | 4,013 | – | – | 50,451 | ||||
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PC | PC | 20,624 | 51.72% | 11,374 | 28.52% | 52.02% | 9,250 | 20,624 | 8,336 | 1,067 | – | 602 | 39,879 | ||||
Sudbury | Lib | NDP | 14,274 | 42.24% | 978 | 2.89% | 51.92% | 13,296 | 4,663 | 14,274 | 1,212 | 105 | 243 | 33,793 | ||||
Thornhill | PC | PC | 21,886 | 43.99% | 106 | 0.21% | 47.83% | 21,780 | 21,886 | 4,052 | 1,229 | – | 804 | 49,751 | ||||
Thunder Bay—Atikokan | Lib | Lib | 15,176 | 52.98% | 7,124 | 24.87% | 49.02% | 15,176 | 3,779 | 8,052 | 964 | – | 676 | 28,647 | ||||
Thunder Bay—Superior North | Lib | Lib | 15,519 | 55.97% | 7,350 | 26.51% | 50.41% | 15,519 | 1,991 | 8,169 | 997 | – | 1,049 | 27,725 | ||||
Timiskaming—Cochrane | NDP | NDP | 14,661 | 55.48% | 8,527 | 32.27% | 50.68% | 6,134 | 4,527 | 14,661 | 489 | – | 615 | 26,426 | ||||
Timmins—James Bay | NDP | NDP | 11,756 | 51.18% | 6,229 | 27.12% | 45.15% | 5,527 | 5,226 | 11,756 | 403 | – | 60 | 22,972 | ||||
Toronto Centre | Lib | Lib | 29,935 | 58.47% | 20,437 | 39.92% | 50.86% | 29,935 | 9,498 | 8,140 | 2,265 | – | 1,357 | 51,195 | ||||
Toronto—Danforth | NDP | NDP | 19,190 | 44.61% | 3,207 | 7.46% | 55.30% | 15,983 | 4,304 | 19,190 | 2,351 | – | 1,189 | 43,017 | ||||
Trinity—Spadina | NDP | Lib | 26,613 | 46.34% | 9,171 | 15.97% | 49.33% | 26,613 | 8,035 | 17,442 | 4,033 | – | 1,311 | 57,434 | ||||
Vaughan | Lib | Lib | 33,877 | 56.21% | 16,898 | 28.04% | 44.68% | 33,877 | 16,979 | 6,942 | 1,350 | – | 1,121 | 60,269 | ||||
Welland | NDP | NDP | 21,326 | 46.71% | 8,393 | 18.38% | 53.20% | 9,060 | 12,933 | 21,326 | 1,874 | – | 460 | 45,653 | ||||
Wellington—Halton Hills | PC | PC | 22,450 | 46.61% | 8,330 | 17.29% | 55.61% | 14,120 | 22,450 | 6,804 | 3,550 | – | 1,241 | 48,165 | ||||
Whitby—Oshawa | PC | PC | 24,027 | 40.65% | 5,410 | 9.15% | 54.35% | 18,617 | 24,027 | 13,621 | 2,523 | – | 322 | 59,110 | ||||
Willowdale | Lib | Lib | 24,300 | 52.58% | 8,832 | 19.11% | 46.88% | 24,300 | 15,468 | 4,693 | 1,758 | – | – | 46,219 | ||||
Windsor—Tecumseh | Lib | NDP | 22,818 | 62.16% | 17,219 | 46.91% | 42.77% | 5,599 | 2,118 | 22,818 | 5,493 | – | 682 | 36,710 | ||||
Windsor West | Lib | NDP | 15,043 | 41.41% | 1,042 | 2.87% | 42.71% | 14,001 | 5,225 | 15,043 | 1,171 | 891 | – | 36,331 | ||||
York Centre | Lib | Lib | 16,935 | 47.89% | 5,810 | 16.43% | 46.74% | 16,935 | 11,125 | 5,645 | 1,163 | – | 493 | 35,361 | ||||
York—Simcoe | PC | PC | 19,025 | 40.40% | 2,749 | 5.84% | 47.53% | 16,276 | 19,025 | 8,420 | 2,946 | – | 419 | 47,086 | ||||
York South—Weston | Lib | Lib | 15,669 | 47.85% | 3,469 | 10.59% | 46.13% | 15,669 | 3,687 | 12,200 | 797 | 146 | 249 | 32,748 | ||||
York West | Lib | Lib | 11,907 | 46.71% | 1,910 | 7.49% | 42.24% | 11,907 | 2,794 | 9,997 | 418 | 111 | 267 | 25,494 |
- = open seat
- = turnout is above provincial average
- = incumbent re-elected
- = incumbency arose from byelection gain
- ^ "2014 General Election". elections.on.ca. Elections Ontario. Retrieved June 18, 2023.
- ^ including spoilt ballots
- ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
Maps
- Support for Liberal Party candidates by riding
- Support for Conservative Party candidates by riding
- Support for New Democratic Party candidates by riding
- Support for Green Party candidates by riding
- Support for Libertarian Party candidates by riding
Summary analysis
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/Legislative_Assembly_of_Ontario_-_Seats_by_Party_%282014%29.png/220px-Legislative_Assembly_of_Ontario_-_Seats_by_Party_%282014%29.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/87/41onla_2014_retention_swing.png/220px-41onla_2014_retention_swing.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d2/Gallagher_on2014.png/220px-Gallagher_on2014.png)
|
Party | 2011 | Gain from (loss to) | 2014 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lib | PC | NDP | ||||||
Liberal | 53 | 7 | 3 | (5) | 58 | |||
Conservative | 37 | (7) | (2) | 28 | ||||
New Democratic | 17 | 5 | (3) | 2 | 21 | |||
Total | 107 | 5 | (10) | 9 | 3 | (7) | 107 |
Pairing off the top three parties, swings were calculated to be:
- PC to Liberal: 2.6%
- PC to NDP: 2.6%
- Liberal to NDP: insignificant
Regional analysis
Party | Toronto | 905 Belt | Ham/Niagara | Central | East | Midwest | Southwest | North | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | 20 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 58 | |
Conservative | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 28 | ||
New Democratic | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 21 | |||
Total | 22 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 107 |
Party | Toronto | 905 Belt | Ham/Niagara | Central | East | Midwest | Southwest | North | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | (3) | (1) | 5 | |||
Conservative | (1) | (2) | (4) | (2) | (9) | |||||
New Democratic | (3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Principal races
Party in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Total | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lib | PC | NDP | |||
Liberal | – | 43 | 15 | 58 | |
Progressive Conservative | 22 | – | 6 | 28 | |
New Democratic | 14 | 7 | – | 21 | |
Total | 36 | 50 | 21 | 107 |
Parties | Seats | |
---|---|---|
█ Liberal | █ Progressive Conservative | 65 |
█ Liberal | █ New Democratic | 29 |
█ Progressive Conservative | █ New Democratic | 13 |
Total | 107 |
Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
█ Liberal | 58 | 36 | 13 | 107 | ||
█ Progressive Conservative | 28 | 50 | 28 | 1 | 107 | |
█ New Democratic | 21 | 21 | 62 | 3 | 107 | |
█ Green | 4 | 101 | 2 | 107 | ||
█ Libertarian | 1 | 61 | 62 | |||
█ Northern Ontario Heritage | 1 | 1 | ||||
█ Freedom | 15 | 15 | ||||
█ None of the Above | 4 | 4 | ||||
█ Family Coalition | 3 | 3 | ||||
█ Independent | 2 | 2 | ||||
█ Communist | 2 | 2 | ||||
█ Confederation of Regions | 2 | 2 | ||||
█ Canadians' Choice | 1 | 1 | ||||
█ Trillium | 1 | 1 |
Significant results among independent and minor party candidates
Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:
Riding | Party | Candidates | Votes | Placed |
---|---|---|---|---|
Huron—Bruce | █ FamilyCoalition | Andrew Zettel | 1,353 | 5th |
Kitchener—Conestoga | █ Libertarian | David Schumm | 1,001 | 5th |
London West | █ Freedom | Al Gretzky | 1,188 | 5th |
Oak Ridges—Markham | █ Libertarian | Karl Boelling | 1,358 | 5th |
Vaughan | █ Libertarian | Paolo Fabrizio | 1,121 | 5th |
Wellington—Halton Hills | █ Libertarian | Jason Cousineau | 1,043 | 5th |
Seats changing hands
There were 17 seats that changed allegiance from the 2011 election.
|
|
|
Source | Party | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lib | PC | NDP | Total | ||||
Seats retained | Incumbents returned | 42 | 28 | 14 | 84 | ||
Open seats held | 5 | 5 | |||||
Byelection loss reversed | 1 | 1 | |||||
Seats changing hands | Incumbents defeated | 8 | 2 | 10 | |||
Open seats gained | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||||
Byelection gains held | 4 | 4 | |||||
Total | 58 | 28 | 21 | 107 |
Marginal seats
The following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in the election:
Marginal constituencies (Ontario general election, 2014)[40] | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Constituency | Rank of parties | Margins | Result | ||||
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 1st vs 2nd | 1st vs 3rd | |||
Barrie | 40.7% | 36.1% | 16.3% | 4.6% | 24.4% | Lib gain | |
Beaches—East York | 40.1% | 39.0% | 13.9% | 1.1% | 26.2% | Lib gain | |
Durham | 36.5% | 34.3% | 24.1% | 2.2% | 12.4% | Lib gain | |
Kitchener—Conestoga | 36.4% | 33.3% | 21.2% | 3.1% | 15.2% | PC hold | |
Parkdale—High Park | 40.8% | 40.0% | 12.8% | 0.8% | 28.0% | NDP hold | |
Sudbury | 42.2% | 39.4% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 28.4% | NDP gain | |
Thornhill | 44.0% | 43.8% | 8.1% | 0.2% | 35.9% | PC hold | |
Windsor West | 41.4% | 38.5% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 27.0% | NDP gain |
Opinion polls
Voting intention polls released throughout the election campaign were distinctly inconsistent and contradictory,[41][42][43][44] as shown in the graph and table below. During much of the campaign, different pollsters persistently disagreed, frequently by important margins, on whether the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives held the lead, though by the final days most polls showed the Liberals marginally to comfortably ahead. Still, polls completed on the last day of the campaign by Ipsos Reid and EKOS showed vastly divergent support for the NDP, at 30% and 19%, respectively. Also of note, although four different pollsters released results among "likely voters" alongside their results among all eligible voters in an effort to better predict the outcome of the election based on expected voter turnout, in all cases the former proved to be overall poorer predictors than the latter.[45]
General opinion polls
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a7/Polling_during_the_2014_Ontario_election_campaign.png/750px-Polling_during_the_2014_Ontario_election_campaign.png)
Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | Liberal | PC | NDP | Green | Libertarian | Other | Type of poll | Sample size | Margin of Error | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election 2014 | June 12, 2014 | HTML | 38.65 | 31.25 | 23.75 | 4.84 | 1.51 | Ballot | 4,851,333 | |||
Forum Research | June 11, 2014 | 41 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 1 | IVR | 1,054 | ±3% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS[2] | June 11, 2014 | 37.3 | 31.3 | 19.2 | 8.2 | 3.9 | IVR | 1,311 | ±2.7% | 19 ![]() | ||
Abacus Data[2] | June 11, 2014 | 35 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 1 | Online | 1,882 | ±2.3% | 19 ![]() | ||
Ipsos Reid[2] | June 11, 2014 | HTML | 33 | 31 | 30 | 5 | Online | 1,991 | ±2.4% | |||
EKOS[2] | June 10, 2014 | 36.6 | 30.2 | 21.5 | 6.6 | 5.0 | IVR | 1,332 | ±2.7% | 19 ![]() | ||
Angus Reid[2] | June 10, 2014 | 36 | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | Online | 1,866 | ±2.3% | 19 ![]() | ||
Forum Research | June 9, 2014 | 42 | 35 | 19 | 3 | 1 | IVR | 739 | ±4% | 19 ![]() | ||
Léger Marketing | June 9, 2014 | 37 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 1 | Online | 1,050 | ±3.2% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS[2] | June 9, 2014 | 34.7 | 34.5 | 19.8 | 6.7 | 4.3 | IVR | 1,417 | ±2.6% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS[2] | June 8, 2014 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 17.6 | 7.7 | 2.8 | IVR | 1,331 | ±2.7% | 19 ![]() | ||
Oraclepoll Research | June 8, 2014 | 35 | 36 | 24 | 5 | Telephone | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 ![]() | |||
Abacus Data[2] | June 7, 2014 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 5 | 1 | Online | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS[2] | June 6, 2014 | 34.2 | 35.5 | 20.5 | 7.4 | 2.4 | IVR | 1,767 | ±2.3% | 19 ![]() | ||
Ipsos Reid[2] | June 6, 2014 | HTML | 35 | 35 | 26 | 4 | Online | 2,140 | ±2.4% | |||
Forum Research | June 5, 2014 | 39 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 1 | IVR | 1,022 | ±3% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS[2] | June 5, 2014 | 33.9 | 34.9 | 20.5 | 8.4 | 2.3 | IVR | 1,690 | ±2.4% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS[2] | June 4, 2014 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 19.8 | 9.6 | 4.0 | IVR | 1,303 | ±2.7% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS | June 3, 2014 | 36.4 | 31.0 | 19.3 | 8.4 | 4.9 | IVR | 997 | ±3.1% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS | June 2, 2014 | 38.8 | 30.5 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | IVR | 934 | ±3.2% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS | June 1, 2014 | 38.5 | 33.7 | 16.9 | 7.8 | 3.0 | IVR | 927 | ±3.2% | 19 ![]() | ||
Abacus Data[2] | May 31, 2014 | 37 | 30 | 24 | 7 | 2 | Online | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 ![]() | ||
Ipsos Reid[2] | May 29, 2014 | HTML | 34 | 36 | 23 | 7 | Online | 868 | ±3.8% | |||
Forum Research | May 27, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-05-29 at the Wayback Machine | 36 | 36 | 20 | 7 | 1 | IVR | 882 | ±3% | 19 ![]() | |
Oraclepoll Research | May 27, 2014 | 32 | 36 | 25 | 7 | Telephone | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 ![]() | |||
Nanos Research | May 26, 2014 | 37.7 | 31.2 | 23.7 | 5.3 | Telephone | 500 | ±4.4% | 19 ![]() | |||
Abacus Data[2] | May 24, 2014 | 34 | 32 | 25 | 6 | 2 | Online | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS | May 23, 2014 | 35.8 | 30.0 | 20.4 | 11.9 | 1.9 | IVR | 1,215 | ±2.8% | 19 ![]() | ||
Ipsos Reid[2] | May 21, 2014 | HTML | 31 | 35 | 28 | 6 | Online | 800 | ±3.9% | |||
Forum Research | May 20, 2014 | 41 | 34 | 20 | 4 | 1 | IVR | 1,136 | ±3% | 19 ![]() | ||
Abacus Data[2] | May 16, 2014 | 33 | 33 | 26 | 6 | 2 | Online | 2,000 | ±2.2% | 19 ![]() | ||
EKOS | May 15, 2014 | 37.1 | 30.3 | 20.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | IVR | 1,111 | ±2.9% | 19 ![]() | ||
Ipsos Reid[2] | May 14, 2014 | HTML | 30 | 39 | 24 | 7 | Online | 801 | ±3.9% | |||
Forum Research | May 12, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-05-17 at the Wayback Machine | 38 | 35 | 21 | 5 | 1 | IVR | 996 | ±3% | 19 ![]() | |
Ipsos Reid[2] | May 9, 2014 | HTML | 31 | 37 | 28 | 4 | Online | 821 | ±3.9% | |||
Innovative Research | May 6, 2014 | 38.8 | 32.8 | 19.9 | 6.5 | 2.0 | Online | 1,000 | N/A[1] | |||
Innovative Research | May 6, 2014 | 38.7 | 32.8 | 23.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | Telephone | 500 | ±4.4% | 19 ![]() | ||
Oraclepoll Research | May 5, 2014 | PDF[permanent dead link] HTML | 31 | 42 | 25 | 3 | Telephone | 1,000 | ±3.2% | 19 ![]() | ||
Forum Research | May 3, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-05-05 at the Wayback Machine | 33 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 1 | IVR | 1,845 | ±2% | 19 ![]() | |
EKOS | May 1, 2014 | 34.7 | 31.6 | 22.2 | 9.4 | 2.0 | IVR | 1,576 | ±2.5% | 19 ![]() | ||
Election 2011 | October 6, 2011 | 37.65 | 35.45 | 22.74 | 2.92 | 1.24 | Ballot | 4,316,382 |
1 Innovative Research states, for Province Wide Online Survey, "Margin of error not applicable, online samples not random."
2 Data shown above for campaign-period polls are top-line results, typically among all eligible voters. However, certain pollsters additionally report results among "likely voters" in an effort to better predict the actual outcome of the election. When available, these alternative results are shown in the following table:
Likely voters
Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | Liberal | PC | NDP | Green | Libertarian | Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EKOS | June 11, 2014 | 42.2 | 35.9 | 16.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | ||
Abacus Data | June 11, 2014 | 36 | 36 | 23 | 5 | 1 | ||
Ipsos Reid | June 11, 2014 | HTML | 30 | 36 | 30 | 4 | ||
EKOS | June 10, 2014 | 41.1 | 33.2 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | ||
Angus Reid | June 10, 2014 | 34 | 36 | 24 | 5 | 1 | ||
EKOS | June 9, 2014 | 38.1 | 36.3 | 16.9 | 5.7 | 3.1 | ||
EKOS | June 8, 2014 | 42.2 | 35.4 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 2.0 | ||
Abacus Data | June 7, 2014 | 34 | 34 | 26 | 5 | 1 | ||
EKOS | June 6, 2014 | 40.7 | 35.7 | 16.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | ||
Ipsos Reid | June 6, 2014 | HTML | 32 | 40 | 24 | 3 | ||
EKOS | June 5, 2014 | 39.5 | 35.6 | 16.7 | 6.6 | 2 | ||
EKOS | June 4, 2014 | 41.4 | 32.0 | 17.8 | 6.2 | 3 | ||
Abacus Data | May 31, 2014 | 37 | 35 | 22 | 5 | 2 | ||
Ipsos Reid | May 29, 2014 | HTML | 29 | 41 | 25 | 4 | ||
Abacus Data | May 24, 2014 | 36 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 1 | ||
Ipsos Reid | May 21, 2014 | HTML | 30 | 41 | 26 | 3 | ||
Abacus Data | May 16, 2014 | 33 | 36 | 25 | 5 | 1 | ||
Ipsos Reid | May 14, 2014 | HTML | 31 | 43 | 22 | 4 | ||
Ipsos Reid | May 9, 2014 | HTML | 28 | 42 | 27 | 2 |
Pre-campaign period
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/ON_provincial_polling_since_the_2011_election_%28alt%29.png/750px-ON_provincial_polling_since_the_2011_election_%28alt%29.png)
Pre-campaign period polling (October 2011 – April 2014) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | Liberal | PC | NDP | Green | Type of poll | Sample size | |
Ipsos Reid | April 17, 2014 | HTML | 32 | 37 | 27 | 5 | Online | 813 | |
Innovative Research | April 14, 2014 | 39 | 30 | 23 | 7 | Online | 800 | ||
Nanos Research | April 11, 2014 | 36.3 | 36.0 | 21.6 | 5.7 | Telephone | 503 | ||
Forum Research | April 7, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-04-13 at the Wayback Machine | 31 | 38 | 23 | 7 | IVR | 928 | |
Oraclepoll Research | April 7, 2014 | 35 | 34 | 24 | 8 | Telephone | 1,000 | ||
EKOS | April 3, 2014 | 32.3 | 27.4 | 29.0 | 8.3 | IVR | 1,234 | ||
Innovative Research | March 26, 2014 | 38 | 33 | 25 | 4 | Online | 1,017 | ||
Forum Research | March 24, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | 35 | 32 | 25 | 7 | IVR | 908 | |
Nanos Research | March 3, 2014 | 35.7 | 32.9 | 24.5 | 6.8 | Telephone | 500 | ||
Forum Research | February 25, 2014 | HTML | 32 | 35 | 26 | 6 | IVR | 1,014 | |
Ipsos Reid | February 7, 2014 | HTML | 31 | 34 | 31 | 4 | Online | 828 | |
Forum Research | January 25, 2014 | HTML | 33 | 36 | 26 | 4 | IVR | 1,222 | |
Nanos Research | January 20, 2014 | 35.5 | 28.1 | 27.4 | 8.1 | Telephone | 500 | ||
Forum Research | December 18, 2013 | HTML | 31 | 38 | 24 | 5 | IVR | 1,044 | |
Forum Research | November 26, 2013 | PDF Archived 2013-12-19 at the Wayback Machine | 32 | 38 | 23 | 6 | IVR | 1,126 | |
Ipsos Reid | November 6, 2013 | HTML | 34 | 31 | 31 | 5 | Online | 832 | |
Forum Research | October 25, 2013 | HTML | 31 | 34 | 27 | 7 | IVR | 1,049 | |
Forum Research | October 1, 2013 | HTML | 33 | 36 | 23 | 7 | IVR | 1,093 | |
Nanos Research | September 29, 2013 | 36.0 | 31.3 | 26.1 | 6.3 | Telephone | 500 | ||
Campaign Research | September 19, 2013 | 36 | 32 | 22 | 8 | IVR | 1,414 | ||
Abacus Data | September 4, 2013 | 30 | 33 | 30 | 5 | Online | 1,000 | ||
Forum Research | August 28, 2013 | 32 | 35 | 26 | 6 | IVR | 1,063 | ||
Innovative Research | August 27, 2013 | HTML | 37 | 30 | 22 | 10 | Telephone | 600 | |
Forum Research | July 22, 2013 | 31 | 36 | 27 | 5 | IVR | 914 | ||
Nanos Research | July 14, 2013 | 37.2 | 30.6 | 27.0 | 4.9 | Telephone | 500 | ||
EKOS | July 9, 2013 | 31.9 | 28.9 | 25.9 | 9.4 | IVR | 830 | ||
Forum Research | June 26, 2013 | 33 | 35 | 24 | 8 | IVR | 1,037 | ||
Forum Research | May 28, 2013 | 38 | 34 | 21 | 6 | IVR | 918 | ||
EKOS | May 26, 2013 | HTML | 34.9 | 29.6 | 22.6 | 9.4 | IVR | 1,152 | |
Ipsos Reid | May 21, 2013 | HTML | 34 | 34 | 26 | 5 | Online | 1,772 | |
Abacus Data | May 9, 2013 | 34 | 34 | 25 | 6 | Online | 1,185 | ||
Innovative Research | May 9, 2013 | 37 | 30 | 25 | 6 | Telephone | 610 | ||
Forum Research | May 3, 2013 | 35 | 35 | 25 | 4 | IVR | 869 | ||
Forum Research | April 26, 2013 | 36 | 36 | 24 | 4 | IVR | 1,133 | ||
Ipsos Reid | April 17, 2013 | HTML | 28 | 37 | 29 | 6 | Online | 1,360 | |
EKOS | April 10, 2013 | 30.8 | 31.7 | 25.5 | 9.7 | IVR | 1,084 | ||
Forum Research | March 27, 2013 | 33 | 35 | 26 | 5 | IVR | 1,156 | ||
Forum Research | March 1, 2013 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 5 | IVR | 2,773 | ||
Forum Research | February 20, 2013 | 29 | 36 | 28 | 5 | IVR | 1,053 | ||
Nanos Research | February 13, 2013 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 26.5 | 5.4 | Telephone | 500 | ||
EKOS | February 10, 2013 | 32.5 | 28.5 | 25.6 | 10.1 | IVR | 1,797 | ||
Abacus Data | February 6, 2013 | PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine | 30 | 33 | 31 | 5 | Online | 1,020 | |
Innovative Research | January 29, 2013 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 9 | Telephone | 446 | ||
Forum Research | January 24, 2013 | 27 | 32 | 35 | 5 | IVR | 1,108 | ||
Forum Research | December 17, 2012 | 27 | 33 | 31 | 8 | IVR | 990 | ||
Abacus Data | December 8, 2012 | PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine | 28 | 35 | 31 | 5 | Online | 821 | |
Forum Research | November 28, 2012 | 29 | 35 | 27 | 8 | IVR | 1,127 | ||
Oraclepoll Research | November 24, 2012 | 26 | 37 | 31 | 6 | Telephone | |||
Forum Research | October 31, 2012 | 22 | 37 | 32 | 7 | IVR | 1,102 | ||
Innovative Research | October 22, 2012 | 28 | 32 | 31 | 9 | Telephone | 600 | ||
Angus Reid | October 17, 2012 | 26 | 36 | 32 | 5 | Online | 802 | ||
Forum Research | September 25, 2012 | 20 | 37 | 35 | 7 | IVR | 851 | ||
Nanos Research | August 16, 2012 | 34.0 | 34.7 | 22.1 | 6.8 | Telephone | 1,000 | ||
Forum Research | August 15, 2012 | 27 | 38 | 28 | 6 | IVR | 1,021 | ||
Forum Research | June 15, 2012 | 26 | 38 | 30 | 5 | IVR | 1,098 | ||
Forum Research | June 4, 2012 | 28 | 36 | 30 | 4 | IVR | 1,038 | ||
Environics | May 25, 2012 | 25 | 37 | 28 | 10 | Telephone | 500 | ||
Forum Research | May 14, 2012 | 27 | 34 | 32 | 5 | IVR | 1,072 | ||
Nanos Research | May 13, 2012 | 31.0 | 33.6 | 28.5 | 5.6 | Telephone | 500 | ||
Forum Research | April 17, 2012 | 28 | 34 | 31 | 5 | IVR | 1,084 | ||
Nanos Research | April 15, 2012 | 35.4 | 32.1 | 26.5 | 6.0 | Telephone | 501 | ||
Environics | April 13, 2012 | HTML | 27 | 37 | 30 | 6 | Telephone | 500 | |
Forum Research | March 28, 2012 | 30 | 34 | 30 | 5 | IVR | 1,131 | ||
Forum Research | March 13, 2012 | 28 | 40 | 23 | 8 | IVR | 1,065 | ||
Nanos Research | March 5, 2012 | 39.9 | 30.0 | 24.7 | 4.3 | Telephone | 500 | ||
Forum Research | February 15, 2012 | 32 | 36 | 26 | 5 | IVR | 1,218 | ||
Forum Research | January 18, 2012 | 33 | 41 | 20 | 4 | IVR | 1,041 | ||
Nanos Research | November 13, 2011 | 39.1 | 34.5 | 21.6 | 3.5 | Telephone | 500 | ||
Innovative Research | November 2, 2011 | 39 | 34 | 23 | 4 | Online | 545 | ||
Election 2011 | October 6, 2011 | 37.65 | 35.45 | 22.74 | 2.92 | Ballot | 4,316,382 |
Issues
Economy
Unemployment in Ontario was a major political issue. In particular, the manufacturing sector had shrunk by about 30% or more than 300,000 jobs since 2002.[46]
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario proposed a plan called "Million Jobs Plan", outlining their strategy for job creation and economic growth. By reducing tax, government services, energy costs and regulations the PCs projected to create a cumulative 507,488 jobs over eight years.[47] The plan also called for the reduction of 100,000 civil service jobs. Economists and critics noted fundamental mathematical errors with the PCs' projections. They held, even if the PCs' own data were correctly tabulated, only 50,000 extra jobs would be created (in addition to the 500,000 that would be created anyway without any policy change).[48]
The Ontario Liberal Party proposed the 10 year "Jobs and Investment Plan", which proposed infrastructure investments as their main strategy to create jobs.[49]
The Ontario New Democratic Party platform called for targeted tax credits and incentives to encourage job creation.[50]
The Green Party of Ontario policy proposal stated that it would "focus on your job by lowering payroll taxes for small businesses" as well as investing in transit infrastructure and subsidising energy-saving home improvements.[51]
The Ontario Libertarian Party called for mass privatization, lower taxes and general deregulation, eliminating many business requirements such as permitting, insurance and certification that they considered to be interfering with job creation.[52] Their platform called for government spending to be limited to "only core functions of government; defending life, liberty, and property"[53] and as such would have eliminated industry subsidies or incentives of any kind, particularly in the energy sector.[54]
The Communist Party of Ontario called for raising the minimum wage to $19/hr as well as introducing a guaranteed annual income, nationalization of the domestic steel industry, and investments in public housing, infrastructure and social programs, while shifting taxes from lower to higher income-earners and businesses.[55]
Transit
Due to rapid urban and suburban expansion in southern Ontario, traffic congestion had been increasing greatly. A 2013 study by the CD Howe Institute determined that it was costing $7.5-11 billion annually for the economy of Toronto alone.[56][57]
The Liberals promised $29 billion in infrastructure spending, $15 billion of which would go towards building new transit (mostly LRT) lines in the GTHA, based on the outline of Metrolinx's The Big Move plan, as well as an LRT in Ottawa.[58][59] A high-speed rail line crossing the province from the southeast into Quebec was also planned. The PCs promised to finish building the Eglinton Crosstown, but cancel all the other planned lines, and instead focus on quickly expanding GO service.[60] The NDP plan was similar to the Liberal plan, but included an extra $1 billion to get certain projects built faster.[58]
Endorsements
Media endorsements
The following media outlets made endorsements during the campaign:
Liberal
- Toronto Star[61]
- Now[62]
- Torontoist[63]
Progressive Conservative
- Burlington Post,[64] The Flamborough Review,[65] Oakville Beaver[66] (Same editorial printed in several papers)
- The Globe and Mail[67] (endorsing a minority government)
- National Post[68]
- Ottawa Citizen[69]
- Toronto Sun,[70] Ottawa Sun[71] (Identical editorial printed in multiple cities)
- Windsor Star[72]
New Democratic Party
- Sudbury Star [73] (endorsing a minority government)
Explicitly not endorsing any party
Public figure endorsements
The media has reported the following endorsements by public figures during the campaign:
- Deputy Mayor of Toronto, and acting mayor, Norm Kelly endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.[76]
- Mayor of Mississauga, Hazel McCallion endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.[77]
- Mayor of Kitchener, Carl Zehr endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.[78]
References
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- ^ "Ontario election 2014: Wynne vows to re-introduce budget - Toronto - CBC News". CBC News. May 2, 2014. Archived from the original on September 17, 2020. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
- ^ a b "Ontario Election Seemingly On Way As NDP Won't Support Budget". Huffington Post. May 2, 2014. Archived from the original on May 2, 2014. Retrieved May 2, 2014.
- ^ "Sexuality a 'non-issue' during Wynne's election campaign: expert". National Post. The Canadian Press. June 14, 2014. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
- ^ Tepper, Sean (June 13, 2014). "Ontario takes pride that gay premier's win taken in stride". Globe and Mail. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
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{{cite news}}
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- ^ Statement by Newmarket - Aurora MPP Frank Klees Archived 2014-02-01 at the Wayback Machine, dated: January 21, 2014, retrieved May 28, 2014
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- ^ "It's time for a change". Flamborough Review, a division of Metroland Media Group. June 5, 2014. Archived from the original on July 15, 2014. Retrieved June 10, 2014.
- ^ "EDITORIAL: It's time for a change". Oakville Beaver, a division of Metroland Media Group. June 3, 2014. Archived from the original on June 8, 2014. Retrieved June 5, 2014.
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- ^ "Editorial: We endorse Tim Hudak, for Ontario". Ottawa Sun a member of Canoe Sun Media. June 8, 2014. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved June 10, 2014.
- ^ "The Star's View: Hudak has the right plan to restore Ontario's economic health". Windsor Star. June 4, 2014. Archived from the original on June 8, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
- ^ "The NDP - for now". Sudbury Star. June 10, 2014. Archived from the original on June 11, 2014. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
- ^ "The Spectator's View: Picking the least unappealing option" Archived 2018-11-16 at the Wayback Machine. Hamilton Spectator, June 11, 2014
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- ^ Don Peat (June 5, 2014). "Deputy Mayor Norm Kelly endorses Wynne". Toronto Sun. Archived from the original on June 11, 2014. Retrieved June 10, 2014.
- ^ Mississauga Mayor Hazel McCallion endorses Kathleen Wynne Archived 2022-03-23 at the Wayback Machine. CBC News. 2014-05-14.
- ^ "Kitchener Mayor Carl Zehr endorses Kathleen Wynne". CBC. June 9, 2014. Archived from the original on June 12, 2014. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
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