2024 Elmwood—Transcona federal by-election

Federal by-election in Manitoba, Canada
2024 Elmwood—Transcona by-election
← 2021 September 16, 2024 (2024-09-16) 45th →
Riding of Elmwood—Transcona
 
NDP
CPC
Candidate Leila Dance Colin Reynolds
Party New Democratic Conservative
Last election 49.7% 28.1%
 
LPC
PPC
Candidate Ian MacIntyre Sarah Couture
Party Liberal People's
Last election 14.7% 5.8%
Incumbent MP

Vacant


A by-election is set to be held in the federal riding of Elmwood—Transcona in Manitoba, Canada, on September 16, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent New Democratic MP Daniel Blaikie.

The race is considered to be a battle between the Conservatives and the NDP, which has long held the constituency.[1]

The by-election will be held on the same day as one in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Quebec.[2]

Background

The riding of Elmwood—Transcona was vacated on March 31, 2024, following the resignation of NDP MP Daniel Blaikie.[3]

Constituency

The constituency is a suburban[4] riding located in the north-eastern parts of the city of Winnipeg. It is considered a working class riding, and contains the areas of East Kildonan, Elmwood, Transcona and part of North Kildonan. There is a large presence of industry in the area.[5]

The riding is considered a stronghold for the New Democratic Party, who have won every election in the riding since its creation in 1988, except for in 2011.[4] Prior to 1988, the NDP held the riding's predecessor of Winnipeg—Birds Hill since its creation in 1979.

Candidates

On May 22, Leila Dance, the Executive Director of the Transcona Business Improvement Zone won the NDP nomination over Leilani Esteban, the Executive Director of the Chalmers Neighbourhood Renewal Corporation.[6][7]

On July 19, Conservative Party announced Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician as their candidate.[8][9] He has described himself as a proud union member.[10] Lawrence Toet, MP for Elmwood—Transcona, from 2011 to 2015 was considered a potential candidate for the Conservatives.[11]

On July 25, the Liberal Party nominated Ian MacIntyre, a retired teacher and union leader.[12]

Russ Wyatt, Winnipeg city councillor for Transcona, 2002 to 2018, and 2022 to present was pondering a run for either the NDP or the Conservatives. He said that he liked the NDP's domestic policies, but disliked their "woke nonsense," and he aligns with the Conservatives on international views and foreign policy.[13] Ultimately, he decided not to run.[14]

On July 2, the Green Party announced that Nic Geddert had won the nomination race to be their candidate.[15]

The People's Party originally chose Byron Gryba as their candidate.[16][17] However, the party later registered Sarah Couture as the candidate.[18]

On August 20, the Canadian Future Party announced Zbig Strycharz would be their candidate. He is one of the two first candidates to participate in any race under the CFP.[19]

Campaign

In May 2024, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh visited the riding.[20] In July 2024, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre visited the riding and held a rally.[21]

Results

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Canadian federal by-election, September 16, 2024: Elmwood—Transcona
Resignation of Daniel Blaikie
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
New Democratic Leila Dance
Conservative Colin Reynolds
Liberal Ian MacIntyre
People's Sarah Couture
Green Nic Geddert
Canadian Future Zbig Strycharz
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

2021 results

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2021 Canadian federal election: Elmwood—Transcona
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
New Democratic Daniel Blaikie 20,791 49.69 +4.07 $63,992.50
Conservative Rejeanne Caron 11,768 28.13 -9.32 $53,284.18
Liberal Sara Mirwaldt 6,169 14.74 +2.42 $10,073.29
People's Jamie Cumming 2,435 5.82 +4.64 $276.86
Green Devlin Hinchey 676 1.62 -1.80 $0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit 41,839 99.26 – $106,782.98
Total rejected ballots 314 0.74 +0.03
Turnout 42,153 59.62 -2.72
Eligible voters 70,701
New Democratic hold Swing +6.69
Source: Elections Canada[22]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Conservatives look to steal NDP heavy Elmwood-Transcona riding". Winnipeg. 2021-09-10. Retrieved 2024-08-14.
  2. ^ "Trudeau déclenche deux élections partielles, dont une dans LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". La Presse (in Canadian French). 2024-07-28. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
  3. ^ "NDP MP Daniel Blaikie resigning House seat to work with Manitoba premier". CTV News. 28 February 2024. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
  4. ^ a b "More baleful byelections are brewing for the Trudeau Liberals after the fall of St. Paul's". National Post. June 27, 2024.
  5. ^ "Election 2021 Riding Profile: Elmwood-Transcona". Winnipeg. 2021-08-27. Retrieved 2024-08-14.
  6. ^ Rollason, Kevin (22 May 2024). "Transcona BIZ boss to run for NDP in byelection". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
  7. ^ Sanders, Carol (4 May 2024). "NDP premiers share political war stories". Winnipeg Free Press. FP Canadian Newspapers Limited Partnership. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  8. ^ https://x.com/CPC_HQ/status/1814308165099384944
  9. ^ McKendrick, Devon (19 July 2024). "Federal Conservatives name candidate for Elmwood-Transcona". CTV News Winnipeg. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  10. ^ Froese, Ian (July 19, 2024). "Conservatives pick union member to go after blue-collar voters in upcoming Elmwood-Transcona byelection". CBC News.
  11. ^ Klein, Kevin (24 March 2024). "Elmwood-Transcona byelection - A test of Conservative momentum". Winnipeg Sun. Postmedia Network. Retrieved 27 April 2024.
  12. ^ "Former teacher, union leader to run for Liberal Party of Canada in upcoming Elmwood-Transcona byelection". CBC. 2024-07-25. Retrieved 2024-07-31.
  13. ^ Piché, Gabrielle (6 April 2024). "Wyatt pondering federal bid to replace Blaikie". Winnipeg Free Press. FP Canadian Newspapers Limited Partnership. Retrieved 27 April 2024.
  14. ^ Wyatt, Russ (15 April 2024). "However, with many suggesting I stay on as city councillor, I want to honour that request". Facebook. Retrieved 27 April 2024.
  15. ^ "Nic Geddert to Run in Elmwood-Transcona". Green Party of Canada. 2 July 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  16. ^ "Byron Gryba". People's Party of Canada. Retrieved 8 August 2024.
  17. ^ Daigneault, Taylor (14 August 2024). "Meet the Elmwood-Transcona candidates". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 20 August 2024.
  18. ^ "Sarah Couture". People's Party of Canada. Retrieved 20 August 2024.
  19. ^ Kives, Bartley (20 August 2024). "New federal centrist party has Zbig news for Elmwood-Transcona byelection". CBC News. Archived from the original on 25 August 2024. Retrieved 25 August 2024.
  20. ^ Posted, Malak Abas (2024-05-25). "Singh's visit boosts Dance's chances in Elmwood-Transcona". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 2024-08-14.
  21. ^ https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/poilievre-federal-conservatives-rally-support-from-voters-ahead-of-elmwood-transcona-byelection-1.7278291
  22. ^ "Elmwood—Transcona forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved 24 August 2024.