Operation Unthinkable
Operation Unthinkable was the name given to two related possible future war plans developed by the British Chiefs of Staff Committee against the USSR during 1945. The plans were never implemented. The creation of the plans was ordered by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in May 1945 and developed by the British Armed Forces' Joint Planning Staff in May 1945 at the end of World War II in Europe.[1]
One plan assumed a surprise attack on the Soviet forces stationed in Germany to impose "the will of the United States and British Empire upon Russia".[2] "The will" was qualified as "a square deal for Poland",[3] which probably meant enforcing the recently signed Yalta Agreement. The planners decided that without American help, the British would probably fail. The assessment, signed by the Chief of Army Staff on 9 June 1945, concluded: "It would be beyond our power to win a quick but limited success and we would be committed to a protracted war against heavy odds".[2] The code name was now reused instead for a second plan, which was a defensive scenario by which the British were to defend against a Soviet drive towards the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean after the withdrawal of the American forces from the Continent. When the Labour Party acquired power by the 1945 general election, it ignored the draft plan.
The study became the first Cold War-era contingency plan for war against the USSR.[4] Both plans were top secret and were not made public until 1998,[5] although Soviet spy Guy Burgess had revealed some details to them at the time.[6]
Operations
Offensive
The initial primary goal of the operation was declared as "to impose upon Russia the will of the United States and the British Empire. Even though 'the will' of these two countries may be defined as no more than a square deal for Poland, that does not necessarily limit the military commitment".[3] (The Soviet Union is referred to as Russia throughout the document, a metonym that was common in the West throughout the Cold War.)
The chiefs of staff were concerned that both the enormous size of the Soviet forces deployed in Europe at the end of the war and the perception that Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin was unreliable caused a Soviet threat to exist in Allied-held Western Europe. The USSR had yet to launch its attack on Japanese forces and so one of the assumptions in the report was that the Soviets would instead ally with Japan if the Western Allies commenced hostilities.
The hypothetical date for the start of the Allied invasion of Soviet-held Eastern Europe was scheduled for 1 July 1945, four days before the United Kingdom general elections.[7] The plan assumed a surprise attack by as many as 47 British and American divisions in the area of Dresden, in the middle of Soviet lines.[7] That represented almost half of the approximately 100 divisions available to the British, American and Canadian headquarters at that time.[8]
The plan was considered by the British Chiefs of Staff Committee as militarily unfeasible due to an anticipated 2.5:1 superiority in divisions of Soviet ground forces within Europe and the Middle East by 1 July, when the conflict was projected to occur.[9] Most of the offensive operation would have been performed by American and British forces, as well as Polish forces and as many as 10 divisions of the German Army, remobilised from prisoner-of-war status. Any quick success would be caused by surprise alone. If a quick success could not be obtained before the beginning of winter, the assessment was that the Allies would be committed to a protracted total war. In the report of 22 May 1945, an offensive operation was deemed "hazardous".
The following table is based on Allied estimates at the time of the planning of Operation Unthinkable.
Allied | Soviet | Ratio | |
---|---|---|---|
Infantry divisions[a] | 80 | 228 | 1 : 2.85 |
Armored divisions[b] | 23 | 36 | 1 : 1.57 |
Tactical aircraft | 6,048[c] | 11,802 | 1 : 1.95 |
Strategic aircraft | 2,750[d] | 960 | 2.86 : 1 |
Defensive
In response to an instruction by Churchill of 10 June 1945, a follow-up report was written on "what measures would be required to ensure the security of the British Isles in the event of war with Russia in the near future".[11] American forces were relocating to the Pacific region for a planned invasion of Japan, and Churchill was concerned that the reduction of forces would give the Soviets a strong advantage for offensive action in Western Europe. The report concluded that if the United States engaged solely in the Pacific Theatre, Britain's odds "would become fanciful".[12]
The Joint Planning Staff rejected Churchill's notion of retaining bridgeheads on the Continent as not having any operational advantage. It was envisaged that Britain would use its air force and navy to resist, but a threat from mass rocket attack was anticipated, with no means of resistance except for strategic bombing.
Subsequent discussions
By 1946, tensions were developing between the Allied-occupied and the Soviet-occupied areas of Europe and were considered as resulting potentially in conflict. One such area was the Julian March (an area of Southeastern Europe that is now divided among Croatia, Slovenia and Italy), and on 30 August 1946, informal discussions occurred between the British and the American chiefs of staff concerning how such a conflict could develop and the best strategy for conducting a European war.[13] Again, the issue of retaining a bridgehead on the continent was discussed, with Dwight D. Eisenhower preferring a withdrawal to the Low Countries, rather than to Italy, because of their proximity to the United Kingdom.
Possible Soviet awareness
During June 1945, the senior Soviet Red Army Marshal Georgy Zhukov suddenly ordered Soviet forces in Poland to regroup and prepare their positions for defence.[citation needed] According to University of Edinburgh Professor John Erickson, Operation Unthinkable helps to explain why Zhukov did so.[citation needed] If the plans of the operation had been transmitted to Moscow by the Cambridge Five, that would explain the sudden orders to regroup and prepare for defence; however, it is just as possible that the decision was caused by Soviet mistrust of the Western Allies. If the Soviets had indeed known that the Western Allies were planning a possible attack, the element of surprise would have been lost before operations against the Soviets even began and further reduce the chances of Operation Unthinkable succeeding.
See also
- Operation Dropshot
- Operation Pike
- Operation Downfall
- Plan Totality
- Seven Days to the River Rhine
- Soviet offensive plans controversy
Notes
Citations
- ^ Todman, Daniel (2017). Britain's War: A New World, 1942-1947. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-065848-9.
- ^ a b ""Operation Unthinkable"". British War Cabinet, Joint Planning Staff. 22 May 1945 – via The National Archives (United Kingdom).
- ^ a b Operation Unthinkable..., p. "1". Archived from the original on 16 November 2010. Retrieved 25 September 2015.
- ^ Costigliola 2011, p. 336.
- ^ Gibbons 2009, p. 158.
- ^ Lownie 2016, p. 148.
- ^ a b Reynolds, p. 250
- ^ Gibbons, p. 158
- ^ "Operation Unthinkable", p. 22. Northeastern University. Retrieved 2 May 2017
- ^ "Operation Unthinkable", Northeastern University, pp. 22–23. Retrieved 5 May 2018
- ^ Operation Unthinkable..., p. "30 (Annex)". Archived from the original on 16 November 2010. Retrieved 16 November 2010.
- ^ Operation Unthinkable..., p. "24". Archived from the original on 16 November 2010. Retrieved 12 May 2015.
- ^ Operation Unthinkable..., p. "35". Archived from the original on 16 November 2010. Retrieved 16 November 2010.
Bibliography
- Costigliola, Frank (2011). Roosevelt's Lost Alliances: How Personal Politics Helped Start the Cold War. Princeton University Press. p. 544. ISBN 9780691121291.
- Hines, Sam. Operation Unthinkable. Its significance in the development of the Cold War (GRIN Verlag, 2016).
- Gibbons, Joel Clarke (2009). The Empire Strikes a Match in a World Full of Oil. Bloomington, IN: Xlibris Corporation. p. 352. ISBN 9781450008693.[self-published source]
- Lownie, Andrew (2016). Stalin's Englishman: The Lives of Guy Burgess. London: Hodder and Stoughton. ISBN 978-1-473-62738-3.
- Norton-Taylor, Richard (2 October 1998) "Churchill plotted invasion of Russia" The Guardian
- Reynolds, David (2006). From World War to Cold War: Churchill, Roosevelt, and the International History of the 1940s. Oxford: Oxford University Press. p. 376. ISBN 978-0-19-928411-5.
- Ruane, Kevin (2016) Churchill and the Bomb in War and Cold War London: Bloomsbury Academic
- Walker, Jonathan (2013). Operation Unthinkable: The Third World War. The History Press. p. 192. ISBN 9780752487182.
- "Public Record Office, CAB 120/691/109040 "Operation Unthinkable: 'Russia: Threat to Western Civilization,'" British War Cabinet, Joint Planning Staff [Draft and Final Reports: 22 May, 8 June, and 11 July 1945]". 11 August 1945. Archived from the original (online photocopy) on 16 November 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2006 – via Department of History, Northeastern University.
External links
- Julian Lewis: Changing Direction: British Military Planning for Post-war Strategic Defence, 2nd edn., Routledge, 2008, pp.xxx-xl (ISBN 0-415-49171-1)
- Operation Unthinkable: Churchill's plan to start World War III
- Hines, Sam (2016). Operation Unthinkable: Its significance in the development of the Cold War. GRIN Verlag. ISBN 9783668261228.
- v
- t
- e
- Morgenthau Plan
- Hukbalahap Rebellion
- Jamaican political conflict
- Dekemvriana
- Guerrilla war in the Baltic states
- Operation Priboi
- Operation Jungle
- Occupation of the Baltic states
- Cursed soldiers
- Operation Unthinkable
- Gouzenko Affair
- Division of Korea
- Indonesian National Revolution
- Operation Masterdom
- Operation Beleaguer
- Operation Blacklist Forty
- Iran crisis of 1946
- Greek Civil War
- Baruch Plan
- Corfu Channel incident
- Turkish straits crisis
- Restatement of Policy on Germany
- First Indochina War
- 1947 Polish parliamentary election
- Truman Doctrine
- Asian Relations Conference
- May 1947 crises
- Partition of India
- Indo-Pakistani War of 1947–1948
- 1947–1949 Palestine war
- Marshall Plan
- Comecon
- 1948 Czechoslovak coup d'état
- Incapacitation of the Allied Control Council
- Al-Wathbah uprising
- Tito–Stalin split
- Berlin Blockade
- Annexation of Hyderabad
- Madiun Affair
- Western betrayal
- Iron Curtain
- Eastern Bloc
- Western Bloc
- Chinese Civil War
- Malayan Emergency
- March 1949 Syrian coup d'état
- Operation Valuable
- Bamboo Curtain
- McCarthyism
- Korean War
- Arab Cold War (1952–1979)
- 1952 Egyptian revolution
- Iraqi Intifada (1952)
- Mau Mau rebellion
- East German uprising of 1953
- 1953 Iranian coup d'état
- Pact of Madrid
- Bricker Amendment
- 1954 Syrian coup d'état
- Petrov Affair
- Domino theory
- 1954 Geneva Conference
- 1954 Guatemalan coup d'état
- Capture of the Tuapse
- First Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Jebel Akhdar War
- Algerian War
- Kashmir Princess
- Bandung Conference
- Geneva Summit (1955)
- Vietnam War
- Cyprus Emergency
- "On the Cult of Personality and Its Consequences"
- 1956 Poznań protests
- Hungarian Revolution of 1956
- Polish October
- Suez Crisis
- "We will bury you"
- Operation Gladio
- Syrian Crisis of 1957
- Sputnik crisis
- Ifni War
- Iraqi 14 July Revolution
- 1958 Lebanon crisis
- Second Taiwan Strait Crisis
- 1959 Mosul uprising
- 1959 Tibetan uprising
- Laotian Civil War
- Kitchen Debate
- Cuban Revolution
- Sino-Soviet split
- Congo Crisis
- Simba rebellion
- 1960 U-2 incident
- Bay of Pigs Invasion
- 1960 Turkish coup d'état
- Albanian–Soviet split
- Iraqi–Kurdish conflict
- Berlin Crisis of 1961
- Berlin Wall
- Annexation of Goa
- Papua conflict
- Indonesia–Malaysia confrontation
- Sand War
- Portuguese Colonial War
- Cuban Missile Crisis
- El Porteñazo
- Sino-Indian War
- Communist insurgency in Sarawak
- Ramadan Revolution
- Eritrean War of Independence
- North Yemen civil war
- 1963 Syrian coup d'état
- Assassination of John F. Kennedy
- Aden Emergency
- Cyprus crisis of 1963–1964
- Shifta War
- Mexican Dirty War
- Guatemalan Civil War
- Colombian conflict
- 1964 Brazilian coup d'état
- Dominican Civil War
- Rhodesian Bush War
- Indonesian mass killings of 1965–1966
- Transition to the New Order (Indonesia)
- ASEAN Declaration
- 1966 Syrian coup d'état
- Cultural Revolution
- Argentine Revolution
- South African Border War
- Korean DMZ Conflict
- 12-3 incident
- Greek junta
- 1967 Hong Kong riots
- Years of Lead (Italy)
- Six-Day War
- War of Attrition
- Dhofar War
- Al-Wadiah War
- Nigerian Civil War
- Protests of 1968
- Prague Spring
- USS Pueblo incident
- 1968 Polish political crisis
- Communist insurgency in Malaysia
- Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia
- 17 July Revolution
- 1968 Peruvian coup d'état
- 1969 Sudanese coup d'état
- 1969 Libyan revolution
- Goulash Communism
- Sino-Soviet border conflict
- New People's Army rebellion
- Détente
- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
- Black September
- Alcora Exercise
- Corrective Movement (Syria)
- Western Sahara conflict
- Cambodian Civil War
- Communist insurgency in Thailand
- 1970 Polish protests
- Koza riot
- Realpolitik
- Ping-pong diplomacy
- 1971 JVP insurrection
- Corrective Revolution (Egypt)
- 1971 Turkish military memorandum
- 1971 Sudanese coup d'état
- Four Power Agreement on Berlin
- Bangladesh Liberation War
- 1972 visit by Richard Nixon to China
- North Yemen-South Yemen Border conflict of 1972
- Yemenite War of 1972
- Munich massacre
- 1972–1975 Bangladesh insurgency
- Eritrean Civil Wars
- 1973 Uruguayan coup d'état
- 1973 Afghan coup d'état
- 1973 Chilean coup d'état
- Yom Kippur War
- 1973 oil crisis
- Carnation Revolution
- Spanish transition to democracy
- Metapolitefsi
- Strategic Arms Limitation Talks
- Second Iraqi–Kurdish War
- Turkish invasion of Cyprus
- Angolan Civil War
- Cambodian genocide
- June 1976 protests
- Mozambican Civil War
- Oromo conflict
- Ogaden War
- 1978 Somali coup attempt
- Western Sahara War
- Ethiopian Civil War
- Lebanese Civil War
- Albanian–Chinese split
- Third Indochina War
- Cambodian–Vietnamese War
- Cambodian conflict
- Operation Condor
- Dirty War (Argentina)
- 1976 Argentine coup d'état
- Egyptian–Libyan War
- German Autumn
- Korean Air Lines Flight 902
- Nicaraguan Revolution
- Uganda–Tanzania War
- NDF Rebellion
- Chadian–Libyan War
- Yemenite War of 1979
- Grand Mosque seizure
- Iranian Revolution
- Saur Revolution
- Sino-Vietnamese War
- New Jewel Movement
- 1979 Herat uprising
- Seven Days to the River Rhine
- Struggle against political abuse of psychiatry in the Soviet Union
- Salvadoran Civil War
- Soviet–Afghan War
- 1980 and 1984 Summer Olympics boycotts
- Gera Demands
- Peruvian Revolution
- Gdańsk Agreement
- Solidarity
- Eritrean Civil Wars
- 1980 Turkish coup d'état
- Ugandan Bush War
- Gulf of Sidra incident
- Martial law in Poland
- Casamance conflict
- Falklands War
- 1982 Ethiopian–Somali Border War
- Ndogboyosoi War
- United States invasion of Grenada
- Able Archer 83
- Star Wars
- 1985 Geneva Summit
- Iran–Iraq War
- Somali Rebellion
- Reykjavík Summit
- 1986 Black Sea incident
- South Yemen civil war
- Toyota War
- 1987 Lieyu massacre
- Operation INFEKTION
- 1987–1989 JVP insurrection
- Lord's Resistance Army insurgency
- 1988 Black Sea bumping incident
- 8888 Uprising
- Solidarity (Soviet reaction)
- Contras
- Central American crisis
- Operation RYAN
- Korean Air Lines Flight 007
- People Power Revolution
- Glasnost
- Perestroika
- Bougainville conflict
- First Nagorno-Karabakh War
- Afghan Civil War
- United States invasion of Panama
- 1988 Polish strikes
- Polish Round Table Agreement
- 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre
- Revolutions of 1989
- Fall of the Berlin Wall
- Fall of the inner German border
- Velvet Revolution
- Romanian Revolution
- Peaceful Revolution
Pro-communist | |
---|---|
Pro-Western |
competition
- Gar Alperovitz
- Thomas A. Bailey
- Michael Beschloss
- Archie Brown
- Warren H. Carroll
- Adrian Cioroianu
- John Costello
- Michael Cox
- Nicholas J. Cull
- Norman Davies
- Willem Drees
- Robert D. English
- Herbert Feis
- Robert Hugh Ferrell
- André Fontaine
- Anneli Ute Gabanyi
- John Lewis Gaddis
- Lloyd Gardner
- Timothy Garton Ash
- Gabriel Gorodetsky
- Fred Halliday
- Jussi Hanhimäki
- John Earl Haynes
- Patrick J. Hearden
- Tvrtko Jakovina
- Tony Judt
- Harvey Klehr
- Gabriel Kolko
- Walter LaFeber
- Walter Laqueur
- Melvyn P. Leffler
- Geir Lundestad
- Vojtech Mastny
- Jack F. Matlock Jr.
- Thomas J. McCormick
- Timothy Naftali
- Marius Oprea
- David S. Painter
- William B. Pickett
- Ronald E. Powaski
- Yakov M. Rabkin
- Mary Elise Sarotte
- Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.
- Ellen Schrecker
- Giles Scott-Smith
- Shen Zhihua
- Timothy Snyder
- Athan Theoharis
- Andrew Thorpe
- Vladimir Tismăneanu
- Patrick Vaughan
- Alex von Tunzelmann
- Odd Arne Westad
- William Appleman Williams
- Jonathan Reed Winkler
- Rudolph Winnacker
- Ken Young
intelligence
- List of Eastern Bloc agents in the United States
- Soviet espionage in the United States
- Russian espionage in the United States
- American espionage in the Soviet Union and Russian Federation
- CIA and the Cultural Cold War
- CIA
- MI5
- MI6
- United States involvement in regime change
- Soviet involvement in regime change
- MVD
- KGB
- Stasi
- Category
- List of conflicts
- Timeline